Climate Futures for Tasmania

The state of Tasmania is likely to experience climate change impacts which will affect individuals, communities and major industries. Understanding these impacts will help decision makers and the community take advantage of any benefits and prepare for longer term impacts.

logo-cftThe ACE CRC’s Climate Futures for Tasmania project provides the first fine-scale climate projections ever produced for Tasmania, and is a key component in the State Government’s response to climate change. By downscaling six global climate models under both a high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios, the project has generated local-scale climate projections at a resolution of roughly 10 kilometres for the time period spanning 1961-2100.

The reports are freely available to the Tasmanian community, and can be downloaded below.

CFT General Impacts coverGeneral Climate Impacts Technical Report

The General Climate Impacts Technical Report sets out the projected changes to Tasmania’s climate during this century, including higher temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns.

Download a summary of the report (PDF, 4MB)

Download the full report (PDF, 17MB)

Climate Modelling report coverClimate Modelling Technical Report

The Climate Modelling Technical Report sets out in more detail the performance of the model simulations in reproducing the Tasmanian climate and assesses the likelihood that the simulations accurately project future climate change for Tasmania.

Download a summary report (PDF, 4MB)

Download the full report (PDF, 30MB)

CFT Agriculture Impacts coverImpacts on Agriculture Technical Report

The Impacts on Agriculture Technical Report sets out the impacts on Tasmanian agriculture from projected climate change. The report examines the key climate indices of frost, drought, chilling and growing degree-days, and focuses on the key agricultural sectors of perennial horticulture, pasture production, grain crops, wine and issues around bio-security.

Download a summary of the report (PDF, 9MB)

Download the full report (PDF, 13MB)

CFT Water Catchment Impacts coverWater and Catchments Technical Report

The Water and Catchments Technical Report sets out projected river flows, to 2100, for more than 1900 subcatchments in 78 river catchments that cover more than 70 per cent of the State by area.  The future operations of Tasmania’s hydro-electric system and 14 major irrigation storages were also simulated to 2100.

Download a summary of the report (PDF, 2MB)

Download the full report (PDF, 6MB)

Extreme events coverExtreme Events Technical Report

The Extreme Events Technical Report examines extreme rainfall, temperature and drought events in the Tasmanian context to determine how climate change might alter the characteristics of these events in the 21st century.

The summary report also includes information on coastal vulnerabilities, wind hazard and impacts on infrastructure.

Download a summary of the report (PDF, 5.2MB)

Download the full report (PDF, 7.5MB)

Extreme Tide and Sea-Level Events Technical Report

The Extreme Tide and Sea-Level Events Technical Report describes the development of spatial maps that provide a basis for the investigation of the possible impacts of future climate change due to sea level rise and changes in weather conditions, and will provide information for subsequent coastal assessments around Tasmania.

Download the full report (PDF, 2.5MB)

Severe Wind Hazard and Risk Technical Report

The Severe Wind Hazard and Risk Technical Report investigates the severe wind hazard and risk to residential buildings in the Tasmanian region, both under current climate and also for two 21st century climate change scenarios.

The report examines trends in severe wind hazard and risk in the Tasmanian region, and has laid the foundation for the exploration of whether the community and government believe the risk is acceptable or if adaptation strategies are required.

Download the full report (PDF, 6.2MB)


[dropshadowbox align=”center” effect=”lifted-both” width=”55%” height=”” background_color=”#ffffff” border_width=”1″ border_color=”#dddddd” ]For all enquiries about the ACE CRC’s Climate Futures program, or to order a hard copy report, please go to the CONTACT page.[/dropshadowbox]


Authorised by the CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre October 2019.

The ACE CRC was established and supported under the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Program.

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